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19
[1903
which in turn (1861-70) was followed by a rate of 37.20 per 1,000. Thence
forward the birth-rate slowly decreased, for in the next decennium (1871-80) it
fell to 36.60; in the ten years 1881-90 to 32.56, and in the years 1891-00 it
was as low as 29.11 per 1,000. Since then three more years have passed, each
of which showed that the decline in the rate still continued, for in 1901 it was
27.62 per 1,000; in 1902 26.80, and in 1903 26.48 per 1,000. Decrease in the
birth-rate is not exceptional to Islington, it is general throughout this country,
and has begun to cause anxiety to thinking people, who are afraid that it
may prove the beginning of the national decay. One of the causes to which
this is attributed is that people now marry later in life than formerly. It is
exactly with nations as with families; when there are few marriages, or late
marriages, there are fewer children, or longer periods between each succeeding
generation. It is easily perceived that if women who married at a mean age
of 30 years bore as many children as women married at 20, the annual number
of births and the rate of increase will differ greatly. On the assumption that
at the birth of their children the mothers' ages will advance equally—six years
as an average—from the time of marriage, their mean age at the time the
children are born will be 36 years and 26 years, while the intervals between
the births of the mothers and the children will be respectively 36 years and
26 years ; and the intervals from marriage of the mothers to the marriage of
the children will also be 36 years and 26 years. Consequently if the same
number of women continue to marry, and if the fecundity of women remain
unchanged, the births will be raised or depressed in the increase ratio of 36
and 26 to 30, the interval from generation to generation, from the birth of the
parents to the birth of their children. If the early marriages prevailed then
a generation would be reproduced every 26 years, and in the case of late
marriages every 36 years. On the hypothesis laid down that the number of
children born in each generation would be the same, the numbers born in
a given time would differ in the ratio of the intervals which separated the
generations.*
There is no doubt that the age at which persons marry is now generally
later than in former years, and, therefore, there has naturally been a decrease
in the birth-rate. We will, therefore, examine how far this is true with respect
to Islington. For this purpose the ages of married women, which are of
course the great factor in procreation, at the last two censuses have been
extracted, and from them the following statement has been prepared.
* Farr in Registrar-General's Fourth Annual Report, p. 138.