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107
[1897
If the schools were not responsible for this increase, what was?
There is no possible answer.
During the last seven years 13,293 cases of Scarlet Fever have
occurred and their ages have been analysed. Of these 1,497 were
below the school age, 9,695 at the school age, and 2,101 above it.
The mean weekly number at each age was then taken and a calculation
made for each week as to the percentage of cases above or below the
mean. These percentage were then charted as seen on the diagram.
The diagonal, or light shadings, show the percentages below the
mean, and the black shading those above it.
It will be noticed that it was not until the last week in June that
the mean line was crossed by any age, and that then it was exceeded at
all the age periods. The tendency to increase was shown least at the
pre-school age, and most at the post school age, while at the school
age there was a distinct inclination to increase until the month of
August when apparently some influence, the closing of the schools it is
suggested, made its effect felt, and kept the percentage down, until at
the last week of that month it was only at the mean line. When,
however, September was reached, the percentage at once rushed up,
until it reached its maximum in the last week of September.
Now, strong as these proofs are against the Schools with regard to
Scarlet Fever, they will be seen to be much stronger when the case of
Diphtheria is considered.
Diphtheria.
On looking at the chart for this disease (page 79), it will at once
be noticed that from the end of June the tendency of the disease was
to increase, but when August was reached this was at once checked, so
that the cases became fewer and fewer to the end of the month; but once
the Schools were re-opened the curve quickly ran up, until in the third
week in September, when, the force of the disease being spent, a steady
decline, which continued to the end of the year, commenced.
The number of cases known in seven years was 1,586, of which 763
were below the school age, 3,436 at the school age, and 1.586 above it.