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10
As farther evidence of the value of vaccination, I have made an analysis
of the 676 cases of small-pox that were received during the six months
ending December 29th, 1895, at the Hospital Ships of the Metropolitan
Asylums Board.
Of these 676 there were 113 under 10 years of age, and 68, to years old
and under 15. Of the 113 under 10 years of age, 104 were not vaccinated,
7 were vaccinated, 2 no history as to vaccination. Of the 68, 10 years
old and under 15, 36 were not vaccinated, 31 were vaccinated, 1 no history
as to vaccination. (Those cases that were unvaccinated at the time when
the disease was contracted, but were vaccinated after this, during what is
called the incubative period, I have, of course, considered as not vaccinated.)
The number of vaccinated children is much greater than the number of
the unvaccinated. Ten years ago the proportion of the unvaccinated was
less than eight per cent, of the total births. I estimate that the proportion
of the unvaccinated under ten years of age in London in 1895, was less than
16 per cent., say less than 1/6 (16⅔ per cent.), or in other words, there were
of children under ten years of age, at least five times as many vaccinated as
unvaccinated.
Therefore, even supposing that the two cases with no history in regard to
vaccination had been vaccinated, and the non-vaccinated had only suffered
in the same proportion as the vaccinated, there would have been only two
cases of small pox of those not vaccinated under ten years of age instead of
104, which really occurred; and if the vaccinated had suffered in the same
proportion as the non-vaccinated, there would have been at least 520 cases of
small-pox, instead of the nine which really occurred among the vaccinated,
and some of those probably were not efficiently vaccinated. Or in other
words, if vaccination had no protective influence there would have been
about 60 times as many cases of small pox amongst the vaccinated, as
actually occurred.
Of those ten years and under fifteen years of age in 1895, the proportion
of the unvaccinated was less than 7 per cent, or less than one in 14, therefore,
if the vaccinated had suffered in the same proportion as the unvaccinated,
there would have been at least 468 cases of small-pox amongst adolescents
of these ages who were vaccinated, instead of 32 that occurred (considering
the case with no history in regard to vaccination as vaccinated), or in other
words, about 15 times as many vaccinated adolescents would have had smallpox
as actually occurred.
From these statistics the protective power of vaccination amongst adol-