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decline in the beginning of the nineteenth century. The possibility
of such general 'cosmic' conditions influencing Small-Pox
cannot be denied; but at present, at all events, the appeal to
such conditions is the result, not of positive knowledge, but of our
inability to explain the phenomena otherwise. Moreover, it is
not certain that the relative paucity of Small-Pox in Europe
before the seventeenth century was not apparent rather than real,
being due merely to absence of information; if so, there is no
necessity to seek in 'cosmic' influences the cause of the supposed
later increase.
In attempting to judge of the decline in question being due
to such 'cosmic' influences, we are met with the difficulty that
exact records of the prevalence of Small-Pox during the period
under discussion are wanting in respect to countries where
vaccination was not practised. But such information as is
available goes to show that in the countries where vaccination
did not become general, Small-Pox prevailed in the first quarter
of the nineteenth century very much as it had prevailed in the
eighteenth. Thus, in Egypt vaccination was not introduced
until 1827, and up to that time Small-Pox was extremely
prevalent; the decline, which in Western Europe was marked
during the first quarter of the century, appears to have been
absent there. Again, in America, though in the early days of
vaccination, efforts were made to spread the practice among
the native tribes, these (especially the tribes of the West)
remained unvaccinated, and among them the ravages of SmallPox
in the first quarter of the nineteenth century are described
as of extreme severity. So in Brazil, vaccination, though
introduced early, was not carried on with the same energy as in
Europe, and here severe epidemics of Small-Pox occurred. There
is no adequate evidence of a decline in unvaccinated countries like
that which took place in vaccinated countries, and there is no
sound reason for attributing the latter to any theoretical 'cosmic'
influences.
Upon the whole, then, we think] that the marked decline of